Osborne doesn’t need to spend more time in the Treasury

June 5, 2012 by

Image © HM Treasury

Image © HM Treasury

Tom Bailey (@baileys72)

Tim Montgomerie recently argued that George Osborne should restrict his role to being Chancellor, rather than also acting as ‘chief election strategist and general busybody across government’, so that he can get a grip on the economy. I’d argue that he should be sacked from both roles rather than restricting his duties to the Treasury. Of course, it is unsurprising to read a left-wing blogger demand that a Conservative chancellor be sacked but I believe many of the coalition’s problems, both political and economic, spring from him. However unrealistic it is, I think there are various reasons why the Conservatives’ long-term prospects would be best served by Cameron ditching his part-time Chancellor.

Firstly, Osborne has not demonstrated any evidence of economic understanding ahead of the crash nor had any success since taking office. In 2006 he described Ireland ‘as a shining example of the art of the possible in long-term economic policymaking’ before in 2007 pledging to match Labour’s spending plans. Given the coalition’s rhetoric against state spending and excessive debt, this seems extremely hypocritical. Since 2010, there has been an economic failure as result of the economic strategy that he put in place. His 2010 Mais Lecture provided the underpinning for the austerity strategy which has helped drive us into a double dip recession. It is hard to see how Cameron could ditch his failing policies without getting rid of the architect.

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Politicians should be wary of vested interests in the economic debate

May 24, 2012 by 3 Comments

Tom Bailey

Image © Alan Chan

On Monday the 2020 Tax Commission final report was published. Other websites have picked over the bizarre elements, the major problems and highlighted certain strengths better than I could. This blog will not discuss all of the report itself but instead use it to raise a broader point. These reports are productions by groups of self-interest and must be treated as such. Think tanks such as the Taxpayer’s Alliance often lack transparency about funding. I can’t find such information on their website and emailing to ask who funds them has not led to a reply (nor did it for George Monbiot). Polly Toynbee wrote a good piece a while back that articulated the problems of that think tank in particular. The TPA supports the self-interest of large business owners and leaders in lower taxes, regardless of the consequent costs for everyone else. What is more annoying is that they are sought whilst many intelligent economists without such evident self interest are ignored. Business leaders and their stooge think tanks seem to be given a preferential place in all economic debates.

This is a cross-party phenomenon that has been going on for far too long. Sure, business support is all well and good, but it should not be the be-all and end-all in economic debates. Tony Blair wrote in his memoirs that he knew Labour had lost the 2010 general election when business came out in support of the Conservatives. He wrote that once you lose chief executives, ‘you lose more than a few votes. You lose your economic credibility. And a sprinkling of academic economists, however distinguished, won’t make up the difference.’ (681) Given Blair’s obsession with courting business support, it seems it was more than just another cheap shot against Gordon Brown. The Conservatives have had a more established deference to business. Appeal to business authority was one tactic used in 2010 by Osborne trying to make the case for deeper austerity than Labour favoured. He said in his Mais Lecture in 2010 that his view was supported by ‘many leading business figures and crucially by international investors’. Both reveal an the misplaced confidence that credibility is primarily derived from business, a theme constantly repeated by journalists. For instance, in January the ever critical Dan Hodges welcomed Labour’s declaration that they could not reverse cuts as a demonstration that ‘Labour “flat-earthers”, who argued for no retreat in the face of the coalition’s austerity measures, or an electorate that views them as a necessary evil, have been routed.’ It has been a common critique of Labour despite the slowdown since the election of the Conservatives in 2010. Personally, I think credibility should be what works rather than by default with what business vested interests support. Business lined up behind Tory levels of austerity arguing that it would support recovery. As we have now gone into a double dip (or if the figures are off, are still flat lining at best), can we be a little more sceptical about their wisdom on all economic matters?

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The NHS reform bill is reckless politics

February 22, 2012 by

Tom Bailey

Image © UCL Conservative Society

The former Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nigel Lawson, famously called the NHS “the closest thing the English have to a religion.” This oft-quoted truism is once again doing the rounds as the furore over the Health and Social Care Bill boils on despite continuous opposition from almost everyone in the profession and large swathes of the public. Ed Miliband even had a good soundbite in PMQs when, citing supposed (and since refuted) opposition to the reforms from the Tory Reform Group, he hit Cameron with the line that ‘Even the Tories don’t trust the Tories on the NHS.’ Lawson’s judgement remains an apt assessment of how important the NHS is to the British people and the corresponding distrust of creeping privatization into this most popular institution of the welfare state. For an example of this instinctive distrust of marketisation of the NHS, last week’s Question Time saw the American business woman, Julie Meyer, jeered by the audience when she suggested that we should turn it into a ‘trillion pound British healthcare industry.’ Perhaps this response was unsurprising given how America somehow squanders away 16.2% of its GDP on healthcare (as opposed to 9.3% for the UK) and yet leaves around 50 million people, or approximately 16% of its population, without healthcare. However, I want to focus on the bad politics surrounding this bill. I lack sufficient expertise and willpower to dissect or examine the 367 page bill itself.

Firstly, this bill was not democratically mandated. The much cited Coalition agreement set out that the government would ‘stop the top-down reorganisations of the NHS that have got in the way of patient care.’ Further to this, the Tory 2010 manifesto stated that ‘more than three years ago, David Cameron spelled out his priorities in three letters – NHS. Since then, we have consistently fought to protect the values the NHS stands for and have campaigned to defend the NHS from Labour’s cuts and reorganisations.’ Occasionally there has been an attempt by the government to claim it is not top-down but bottom-up change. However, one Tory MP argued that ‘stripping out primary care trusts (PCTs) and strategic health authorities is as top down as it comes.’ Even if certain clauses in manifestos gave hints of coming organizational changes, no radical transformation was openly offered up at the last election by either the Tories or the Lib Dems. Instead, the government is open to accusations of dishonesty and hypocrisy given the record of both the Tories and Lib Dems in critiquing overly zealous top down New Labour reforms of the NHS.

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Labour can benefit from the rise of UKIP

February 2, 2012 by 4 Comments

 Tom Bailey

Image © The Freedom Association

Since the 2010 general election, there has been much doom written by left-wing commentators about the British electorate leaning further and further towards the right. Ed Miliband’s ever-scathing critic, Dan Hodges, stated that ‘the electorate is shifting to the Right, not to the Left’ and argued that Labour must consequently move there too. There is an element of truth in the assessment that on issues such as Europe, immigration and the economy, the political right is currently more popular. However, there has not been a clear shift of support from Labour to the Tories since the election. Labour has increased its support since 2010, both in terms of membership and according to polls surveying voting intentions. There has though been a different shift to the political right occurring: the transfer of support from the Conservatives to UKIP, a development that could be of vital importance come 2015. Labour can benefit from this fracture amongst England’s political right much in the same way that the SDP/Liberal/Labour divides in the 1980s aided three successive Thatcher governments. Defection of votes from the Tories to UKIP helped Labour squeeze past in marginal seats in 2010. This effect seems only likely to increase as right-wing dissatisfaction deepens with this government.

The problem for Cameron is that many right-wing voters and politicians see his coalition government as weak on issues of core importance. In his memoirs discussing his years in parliament, ‘A Walk-On Part’, former Labour MP Chris Mullin noted on the day of the 1997 election result that ‘victory is not when our side get the red dispatch boxes and the official cars, but when something changes for the better.’ This line of criticism, that there is no point being in power if you fail to get the right policies enacted, can be seen in every negative left-wing account of New Labour. Increasingly, it seems that Thatcherite backbenchers and voters are having this same thought about the present government. Their aims are not being met, dissatisfaction is rumbling ever louder and UKIP’s policies are looking more attractive.

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Back From The Brink: A review

September 14, 2011 by

(c) firthcycles

Tom Bailey

In ‘Back from The Brink’, Alistair Darling’s recently published autobiography, the former Chancellor sets out his many challenges whilst at the Treasury. It was certainly one of the most dreadful inheritances at that office. The account both details the economic challenges facing him and hits out against both the stupidity of bankers and the failures of politicians across all parties.

It is one of the more enjoyable inside accounts of New Labour, both lucidly written and well peppered with anecdotes. Tony Blair’s book, which has become the reading of choice for the upper echelons of the incumbent Tories, was ruined by the approach of the last hundred or so pages of the book. At this point, it should have been re-titled something along the lines of ‘Gordon failed because he was not ME’. Read more of this post

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George Osborne, tax evasion and the failings of New Labour

September 7, 2011 by 3 Comments

(c) HM Treasury

Tom Bailey

George Osborne recently announced a tax deal with Switzerland with the aim of getting back some of the enormous sum (somewhere between £15 billion to £40 billion) that is estimated to be lost annually to tax evasion. It comes after a similar deal which was announced between Germany and Switzerland.

While you might have thought mistakenly like me that tax evasion would be an issue raised in The Guardian rather than The Telegraph, the issue does not quite so clearly divide the main political parties or between the left and right wings. Commentators from all perspectives are angered by the greed of those who fail to pay their dues. Read more of this post

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Decisive action is essential to tackle Britain’s housing market problems

August 30, 2011 by

(c) kandyjaxx

Tom Bailey

The report by the National Housing Federation (NHF) published today warns of the dire state of the UK housing market. As a result of ‘a chronic under-supply of homes’, we are likely to see a fall in people owning their own homes over the next decades with a forecast that the average house price in England will ‘rise by 21.3% over the next five years from £214,647 in 2011, to £260,304 in 2016’. For some, this will come as good news. Read more of this post

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The euro crisis reveals the bitter division within the Conservative party

August 20, 2011 by

(c) XiXiDu

Tom Bailey

Potential eurozone integration may not have the fiery pictures of riots to accompany, but it is of enormous long-term importance. While we have become used to regular stories of the divides between the coalition partners, the more interesting split on this issue is that within the Conservative party, a divide becoming increasingly evident as the euro crisis deepens. This crisis emerged from problems which eurosceptics predicted would result from having a half-baked euro, one with monetary union but not fiscal union. These issues have come to fruition in recent years and show no signs of ceasing. Read more of this post

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Jonnie Marbles’ sentence was fair for a counterproductive crime

August 4, 2011 by 2 Comments

(c) alanconnor

Tom Bailey

Jonnie Marbles was sentenced on the 2nd of August to three weeks in prison and compelled to pay £265 for his pie foam attack on Rupert Murdoch. I entirely agree with Marbles’ view that ‘it’s not difficult to find reasons to dislike Rupert Murdoch’. Murdoch’s journalism is objectionable to many of the British public and perhaps anyone who views Left Central (do watch this funny old Fry and Laurie sketch). I can also understand the frustration felt by commentators in regard to highlighted examples that suggest that the justice system is inconsistent in its treatment of other apparently criminal acts. However, the attack remains puerile and counterproductive. It was assault and, in the words of Chris Bryant MP, ‘no way to treat any witness, let alone someone over the age of 80.’ Read more of this post

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Ed’s matured, but still has lots of ground to cover

July 25, 2011 by 2 Comments

(c) Department for Energy and Climate Change

Tom Bailey

Ed Miliband’s response to the developments of the News International saga over the last several weeks has rightly drawn praise. He has, in the words of Andrew Rawnsley, ‘thrown off his L-plates’. Certainly there is a broad consensus that he had a far better crisis than David Cameron who has been attacked for both his links to News Corp and his handling of the crisis.

Despite the inevitable complaints from certain sections of the right about the liberal bias from the media, or ‘hysteria’ as Rupert Murdoch termed it, the News of the World (NoW) has appalled commentators of all political perspectives and is of News Corp’s making. Read more of this post

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